2026 Midterms & 2028 Presidential Dashboard
House & Senate Midterms • Early 2028 Outlook | As of February 20, 2026
2026 Midterms: House & Senate
Republicans defend narrow majorities amid historical midterm headwinds against the president's party (Trump approval factors). Generic ballot polls show Democrats leading by 5–7 points in recent surveys. Forecasters (Cook, Sabato, 270toWin consensus) project potential Democratic gains, with toss-ups favoring D momentum in battlegrounds.
Senate Overview & Key Races
Current: 53R–47D (incl. 2 indies caucusing D). 35 seats up (22 R-held, 13 D-held). Dems need net +4 for majority.[270toWin]
Ratings (Cook/Sabato/Inside Elections consensus): ~4–5 toss-ups/leaners (e.g., ME Collins vulnerable, NC open, IA Ernst, GA, MI). Republicans defend more seats; early forecasts give slight D edge for flips.[Cook] [Sabato]
Prediction markets (Kalshi/Polymarket): ~59–60% chance Republicans retain Senate control, but close (D +4 needed seen as plausible).[Kalshi]
Battlegrounds: ME (Collins R), NC (open/Tillis retirement?), IA (Ernst R), OH/MI specials/vulnerable. Dem recruiting strong in red-leaning states.[Race to the WH]
House Overview
All 435 seats up. Current: ~218R–214D (vacancies). Dems need net +3–4 for majority (depending on final count).[270toWin]
Consensus forecasts: ~18–20 toss-ups; slight Democratic lean in simulations (e.g., 210–206 D projection in some models). Redistricting fights ongoing in CA, NC, etc.[Cook] [Sabato]
Generic ballot: Dems +7 in recent Economist/YouGov (Feb 2026), largest post-2024 lead. Historical midterm losses for president's party average ~25 House seats.[YouGov]
2028 Presidential Early Outlook
Trump term-limited; open field on both sides. Early polling fragmented: Republicans rally around JD Vance; Democrats show no clear frontrunner yet, with state-level surges (e.g., Buttigieg in NH). Swing states remain PA, WI, MI, AZ, GA, NV, NC.
Democratic Contenders
Early national polls: Kamala Harris leads some aggregates (~18–38%), but Pete Buttigieg tops NH primary poll (20%), ahead of Newsom/AOC (15% each).[Fox News] [Race to the WH]
Other names: Gavin Newsom (strong in betting markets ~32% nominee odds), AOC (progressive favorite), Mark Kelly, Josh Shapiro, JB Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer, Andy Beshear.[RealClearPolling]
Republican Contenders
JD Vance dominates early polling (~45% in national aggregates), far ahead of others. NH poll: Vance 53%.[Wiki] [Maine Wire]
Potential: Nikki Haley, Marco Rubio, Ron DeSantis, others. Rs expect strong position post-2024.[Ballotpedia]